Subject: Viridian Note 00430: Goodbye Cruel World
- alarmism, imminent apocalypse, gruesome scenarios, British science summit on climate
Attention Conservation Notice:
- so colossally grim that it's exhilirating.
Entries in the Viridian Visionary Contest:
Not even one so far, but the Contest Repository is open for business again, thanks to
Viridian stalwart Bob Morris:
The best collaborative weblog in the whole wide world:
*And the thing I like best about Worldchanging? They're people from all over and not a single one of them is crying in their damn beer!
"Apocalypse now: how mankind is sleepwalking to the end of the Earth"
(((Could we retitle this "Apocalypse in fifty years," please?
I just got up and looked out the window – that isn't an
(((Okay, maybe I'll let you call it "Critical and
Irreversible Change in Ten Years.")))
"Floods, storms and droughts. Melting Arctic ice, shrinking glaciers,
oceans turning to acid. The world's top scientists warned last week
that dangerous climate change is taking place today, not the day
after tomorrow. You don't believe it? Then, says Geoffrey Lean, read this...
(((Okay, I believe in floods, storms, droughts,
melting Arctic ice, shrinking glaciers and even
acidifying oceans. Those still aren't "apocalypse.")))
"06 February 2005
"Future historians, looking back from a much hotter and less
hospitable world, are likely to play special attention to the first
few weeks of 2005.
(((No they aren't. I'm already a future historian looking
back from a much hotter 2005, and the major developments that led us
to today's impasse are the work of Watt, Rockefeller,
Edison and Ford. Compared to the awesome labor of these titans,
having 200 climate scientists meet to tot up the ongoing repercussions is pretty small beer.)))
"As they puzzle over how a whole generation could have sleepwalked
into disaster – destroying the climate that has allowed human
civilisation to flourish over the past 11,000 years – they may
well identify the past weeks as the time when the last alarms sounded.
(((It took TEN generations over a period of TWO HUNDRED
YEARS to do this, and nobody was "sleepwalking" – if the energy
mess was easy to solve, it would have been set right in
the 1960s. This isn't sleepwalking, it's a combo of febrile
incapacity and deliberate obscurantism.)))
"Last week, 200 of the world's leading climate scientists –
meeting at Tony Blair's request at the Met Office's new headquarters
at Exeter – issued the most urgent warning to date that dangerous
climate change is taking place, and that time is running out.
(((Too bad these harmless transatlantic boffins
don't have their own Pentagon Special Operations office.
Really, if they just vanished a few dozen key, evil Beltway coal
and oil operatives into Guantanamo.... But wait! That
would be wrong.)))
"Next week the Kyoto Protocol, the international treaty that tries
to control global warming, comes into force after a seven-year
delay. But it is clear that the protocol does not go nearly far enough.
(((This sure isn't news to us Viridians.))) "The alarms have been going off since the beginning of one of the warmest Januaries on record. First, Dr Rajendra Pachauri –
chairman of the official Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) – told a UN conference in Mauritius that the
pollution which causes global warming has reached 'dangerous' levels.
America pollutes Europe
(((Everybody pollutes everybody by now,
and, weirdly, "global dimming" may be the only reason
"global warming" didn't kill us wholesale ten years ago:)))
"Then the biggest-ever study of climate change, based at
Oxford University, reported that it could prove to be twice
as catastrophic as the IPCC's worst predictions."
The Viridian darlings at "climate prediction net"
(contribute your spare PC cycles today!) are looking
at a new model that pops 11 degrees centigrade. Even
that isn't quite "Apocalypse," though it's surely the end
(((In a word, "AIEEEEEE!")))
"And an international task force – also reporting to Tony Blair,
and co-chaired by his close ally, Stephen Byers – concluded
that we could reach 'the point of no return' in a decade.
(((What if we passed "the point of no return" back in
1975? Look, nobody can properly blame the year 2005
for a multi-century problem. If we're into a planetary climate
calamity, we'll just have to don our miserable Khaki Green
uniforms and claw and crawl our way
back toward survivability by extraordinary means.
Many of us will die, maybe all, but well, we'll
likely be too busy living through it to remember our
"Finally, the UK head of Shell, Lord Oxburgh, took time
out – just before his company reported record profits mainly
achieved by selling oil, one of the main causes of the
problem – to warn that unless governments take urgent
action there 'will be a disaster'.
(((That's right, the current head of the European oil
major Shell can read the writing on the wall. Not
everyone who works for an oil company is a moron
or a blood-spattered predator.)))
(((Except for these Exxon-Mobil guys, who fit
both those descriptions, plus they're rich.)))
"But it was last week at the Met Office's futuristic glass headquarters,
(((hey, nice design detail there)))
(((the handsome structure in question))) "incongruously set in a dreary industrial estate on the outskirts
of Exeter, (((that design detail's even better))) that it all came
together. The conference had been called by the Prime Minister
to advise him on how to 'avoid dangerous climate change'.
He needed help in persuading the world to prioritise the issue
this year during Britain's presidencies of the EU and the G8 group
of economic powers. (((The "dangerous climate change" has been
here for decades now; it's the massive publicity and a
possible change of temperament that is now under way.
Maybe it'll get somewhere useful this time. "War on
Terror" is so 2001, "War on Tyranny" is military occupation,
maybe we'll get around now to facing some reality.)))
"The conference opened with the Secretary of State for the
Environment, Margaret Beckett, warning that 'a significant
impact' from global warming 'is already inevitable'.
(((Grim news for Britain, but news five years old.)))
"It continued with presentations from top scientists and
economists from every continent. These showed that some
dangerous climate change was already taking place and
that catastrophic events once thought highly improbable
were now seen as likely. Avoiding the worst was technically
simple and economically cheap, they said, provided that
governments could be persuaded to take immediate action.
(((Lead with the action instead of the terror next time!)))
"About halfway through I realised that I had been here before.
In the summer of 1986 the world's leading nuclear experts
gathered in Vienna for an inquest into the accident at Chernobyl.
The head of the Russian delegation showed a film shot from
a helicopter, and we suddenly found ourselves gazing down
on the red-hot exposed reactor core."
(((Chernobyl today is one of the world's prettiest wildlife
preservation areas. No, really, it just plain is, believe it
(((If it weren't for climate change, Chernobyl
would be doing great. Chernobyl's dangerous for human beings,
but for animals it's paradise. Even a radioactive cloud has
a radioactive silver lining.)))
"It was all, of course, much less dramatic at Exeter. But as
paper followed learned paper, once again a group of world
authorities were staring at a crisis they had devoted their lives
to trying to avoid.
(((Perhaps some self-criticism is in order. Scientists,
why is your world politically dominated by know-nothings
and religious fanatics?)))
"I am willing to bet there were few in the room who did not sense
their children or grandchildren standing invisibly at their shoulders.
(((Look, that's a painful thought, but we are children and
grandchildren. When it hits the fan in future, our children and
grandchildren are going to be the responsible parties, thinking of
their own children and grandchildren.))) The conference
formally concluded that climate change was 'already occurring'
and that 'in many cases the risks are more serious than previously
thought'. But the cautious scientific language scarcely does
justice to the sense of the meeting. (((How cautious will
today's surviving scientists be when they're
elderly and dying of the heat, I wonder?)))
"We learned that glaciers are shrinking around the world.
Arctic sea ice has lost almost half its thickness in recent decades.
Natural disasters are increasing rapidly around the world. Those caused by the weather such as droughts, storms, and
floods – are rising three times faster than those – such as
earthquakes – that are not.
(((Well, at least it's useful to have this stuff written down
in black and white as the common wisdom of the reality-based
"We learned that bird populations in the North Sea collapsed last year, after the sand eels on which they feed left its warmer
waters – and how the number of scientific papers recording
changes in ecosystems due to global warming has escalated
from 14 to more than a thousand in five years.
"Worse, leading scientists warned of catastrophic changes
that once they had dismissed as 'improbable'. The meeting
was particularly alarmed by powerful evidence, first reported
in The Independent on Sunday last July, that the oceans are
slowly turning acid, threatening all marine life.
(((Okay, if "all marine life" goes, that's Game Over
Permian-Catastrophe style; I'm willing to call that one an "Apocalypse,"
I mean, why should we quibble.)))
"Professor Chris Rapley, director of the British Antarctic Survey,
presented new evidence that the West Antarctic ice sheet is
beginning to melt, threatening eventually to raise sea levels
by 15ft: 90 per cent of the world's people live near current sea levels.
Recalling that the IPCC's last report had called Antarctica
'a slumbering giant', he said: 'I would say that this is now
an awakened giant.'
(((At least they're starting to utter quotable soundbites.
I wonder what people might do about mega-engineering
Antarctica. They're bound to try something; it's
cheaper to build dikes around the ice than build
dikes around 90 percent of us.)))
"Professor Mike Schlesinger, of the University of Illinois,
reported that the shutdown of the Gulf Stream, once seen
as a 'low probability event', was now 45 per cent likely
this century, and 70 per cent probable by 2200.
(((Those sure are interesting stats.))) If it comes sooner
rather than later it will be catastrophic for Britain and
northern Europe, giving us a climate like Labrador
(which shares our latitude) even as the rest of the world
heats up: if it comes later it could be beneficial,
moderating the worst of the warming. ((("Beneficial"?
Oh for heaven's sake.)))
"The experts at Exeter were virtually unanimous about the
danger, mirroring the attitude of the climate science community
as a whole: humanity is to blame. (((Look, it wasn't space aliens.
Of course "humanity is to blame." But who's gonna blame us,
the Klingons? If you want to blame somebody, jail some polluters.)))
There were a few sceptics at Exeter, including Andrei Illarionov,
an adviser to Russia's President Putin, who last year called the
Kyoto Protocol 'an interstate Auschwitz'. (((Huh?))) But in truth
it is much easier to find sceptics among media pundits in London
or neo-cons in Washington than among climate scientists. Even the
few contrarian climatalogists publish little research to support their
views, concentrating on questioning the work of others. (((That's for
sure. Basically climate deniers talk, "research" and act like Holocaust deniers.)))
"Now a new scientific consensus is emerging – that the warming
must be kept below an average increase of two degrees centigrade
if catastrophe is to be avoided. This almost certainly involves
keeping concentrations of carbon dioxide, the main cause of
climate change, below 400 parts per million.
"Unfortunately we are almost there, with concentrations
exceeding 370ppm and rising, but experts at the conference
concluded that we could go briefly above the danger level so
long as we brought it down rapidly afterwards. (((I'm betting on this scenario.))) They added that this would involve the world
reducing emissions by 50 per cent by 2050 – and rich countries
cutting theirs by 30 per cent by 2020. (((I'm betting
on reduction of emissions past zero and a world in 2200 that's
heavily involved in sequestration.)))
"Economists stressed there is little time for delay. If action
is put off for a decade, it will need to be twice as radical;
if it has to wait 20 years, it will cost between three and
seven times as much. (((Or we can simply have a
population crash of 90 percent or so, which takes
care of the emission problems without any waffling
"The good news is that it can be done with existing
technology, (((run the good news, damn it!))) by cutting
energy waste, expanding the use of renewable sources,
growing trees and crops (which remove carbon dioxide from the air) to turn into fuel, capturing the gas before it is released from power stations, and – maybe – using
more nuclear energy. (((Great! Do all of it! Hurry up!)))
"The better news is that it would not cost much: one estimate
suggested the cost would be about 1 per cent of Europe's
GNP spread over 20 years; another suggested it meant
postponing an expected fivefold increase in world wealth
by just two years. (((We'll all be rich and still alive! Get
going!))) Many experts believe combatting global warming
would increase prosperity, by bringing in new technologies.
(((Where on earth are they getting these numbers?)))
"The big question is whether governments will act. (((Oh who
cares.))) President Bush's opposition to international action
remains the greatest obstacle. (((He's just one oil man among many.)))
Tony Blair, by almost universal agreement, remains the leader
with the best chance of persuading him to change his mind.
(((Quit pretending that Bush is God, Britons! Make up your own
minds! Do you really want the guy running modern Iraq to
kite around your world enforcing Kyoto with US Marines?
Clean up your own yard!)))
"But so far the Prime Minister has been more influenced by
the President than the other way round. He appears to be moving
away from fighting for the pollution reductions needed in favour
of agreeing on a vague pledge to bring in new technologies sometime
in the future. (((Bring them faster and the reductions will take care of themselves!)))
"By then it will be too late. And our children and grandchildren
will wonder – as we do in surveying, for example, the drift
into the First World War – 'how on earth could they be so blind?'
((("Au Revoir, Belle Epoque")))
(((No no, wait, it gets even better! Real visionary scenario action here!)))
"What could happen? Wars break out over diminishing water
resources as populations grow and rains fail.
"How would this come about? Over 25 per cent more people
than at present are expected to live in countries where water
is scarce in the future, and global warming will make it worse.
"How likely is it? Former UN chief Boutros Boutros-Ghali has
long said that the next Middle East war will be fought for water, not oil. (((Not
to quibble here, but in a severe water crisis, aren't water-borne
diseases and state collapse a lot more dangerous than water wars
between organized states? "Water wars" is
a paradigm in which national armies can still enforce order.)))
"What could happen? Low-lying island such as the Maldives and
Tuvalu – with highest points only a few feet above sea-level –
will disappear off the face of the Earth. (((Maldives already
whacked by tsunami, actually.)))
"How would this come about? As the world heats up, sea levels
are rising, partly because glaciers are melting, and partly because
the water in the oceans expands as it gets warmer.
"How likely is it? Inevitable. Even if global warming stopped today,
the seas would continue to rise for centuries. Some small islands
have already sunk for ever. A year ago, Tuvalu was briefly submerged. (((I
wonder how truly "inevitable" this is... what if somebody went
and re-glaciated Antarctica?)))
(((Oh, and while you're engineering whole planets, terraform Mars
with artificial greenhouse gases.)))
"What could happen? London, New York, Tokyo, Bombay,
many other cities and vast areas of countries from Britain to
Bangladesh disappear under tens of feet of water, as the
seas rise dramatically.
"How would this come about? (((While everybody was watching
Fox News.))) Ice caps in Greenland and Antarctica melt.
The Greenland ice sheet would raise sea levels by more
than 20ft, the West Antarctic ice sheet by another 15ft.
"How likely is it? Scientists used to think it unlikely,
but this year reported that the melting of both ice caps
had begun. It will take hundreds of years, however,
for the seas to rise that much. (((Maybe.)))
"UNINHABITABLE EARTH (((Now we're talking!)))
"What could happen? Global warming escalates to the
point where the world's whole climate abruptly switches,
turning it permanently into a much hotter and less hospitable planet.
"How would this come about? A process involving 'positive
feedback' causes the warming to fuel itself, until it reaches
a point that finally tips the climate pattern over.
"How likely is it? Abrupt flips have happened in the
prehistoric past. Scientists believe this is unlikely, at least
in the foreseeable future, but increasingly they are refusing to rule it out.
"What could happen? Famously wet tropical forests, such as
those in the Amazon, go up in flames, destroying the world's
richest wildlife habitats and releasing vast amounts of carbon
dioxide to speed global warming.
"How would this come about? Britain's Met Office predicted in 1999 that much of the Amazon will dry out and die within 50
years, making it ready for sparks – from humans or lightning –
to set it ablaze.
"How likely is it? Very, if the predictions turn out to be right.
Already there have been massive forest fires in Borneo and
Amazonia, casting palls of highly polluting smoke over vast areas.
(((One of these palls of smoke, from burning Chiapas, caused me to start
Viridian List in 1998.)))
"THE BIG FREEZE (((I hope you're enjoying this as much
as I am.)))
"What could happen? Britain and northern Europe get
much colder because the Gulf Stream, which provides
as much heat as the sun in winter, fails.
"How would this come about? Melting polar ice sends
fresh water into the North Atlantic. The less salty water
fails to generate the underwater current which the Gulf Stream needs.
"How likely is it? About even for a Gulf Stream failure this
century, said scientists last week.
((("About even." Wanna know what that might be like? Something like this,
more or less:)))
GBN spins the Gulf Stream scenario for the Pentagon
"What could happen? Food production collapses in Africa, for
example, as rainfall dries up and droughts increase. As farmland
turns to desert, people flee in their millions in search of food.
"How would this come about? Rainfall is expected to decrease
by up to 60 per cent in winter and 30 per cent in summer in
southern Africa this century. By some estimates, Zambia could
lose almost all its farms.
"How likely is it? Pretty likely unless the world tackles
both global warming and Africa's decline. Scientists agree
that droughts will increase in a warmer world.
"ACID OCEANS (((the weird, wild scenario)))
"What could happen? The seas will gradually turn more and
more acid. Coral reefs, shellfish and plankton, on which all
life depends, will die off. Much of the life of the oceans will become extinct.
"How would this come about? The oceans have absorbed
half the carbon dioxide, the main cause of global warming,
so far emitted by humanity. This forms dilute carbonic acid,
which attacks corals and shells.
"How likely is it? It is already starting. Scientists warn that
the chemistry of the oceans is changing in ways unprecedented
for 20 million years. Some predict that the world's coral
reefs will die within 35 years.
"DISEASE (((hack, hack, cough)))
"What could happen? Malaria – which kills two million people
worldwide every year – reaches Britain with foreign travellers,
gets picked up by British mosquitos and becomes endemic
in the warmer climate. (((Oh you big British crybabies! At least
you've got the possibility of quarantine for plagues.)))
"How would this come about? Four of our 40 mosquito species
can carry the disease, and hundreds of travellers return with it
annually. The insects breed faster, and feed more, in warmer temperatures.
"How likely is it? A Department of Health study has suggested it
may happen by 2050: the Environment Agency has mentioned
2020. Some experts say it is miraculous that it has not happened already.
"HURRICANES (((the hits just keep on coming)))
"What could happen? Hurricanes, typhoons and violent storms
proliferate, grow even fiercer, and hit new areas. Last September's
repeated battering of Florida and the Caribbean may be just a
foretaste of what is to come, say scientists.
"How would this come about? The storms gather their energy
from warm seas, and so, as oceans heat up, fiercer ones occur
and threaten areas where at present the seas are too cool for such weather.
"How likely is it? Scientists are divided over whether storms
will get more frequent and whether the process has already begun."
7 February 2005 17:36
O=c=O O=c=O O=c=O O=c=O
YOU KNOW WHAT? WE'RE
ACTUALLY GOING TO FACE
OUR REAL PROBLEMS!
IT'S GREAT NEWS!
O=c=O O=c=O O=c=O O=c=O